← AMB Store Champs @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at AMB Store Champs @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
decks
2
(18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-4-0
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.2%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1324
· median 1324
· range 1225–1423
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1234
Q3 1402
1599
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 18.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.4% | -12.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 18.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.8% | +4.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.8 |
| Water Polkhawk | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
